Australian Government, Australian Government Actuary

4. Financial management of the Run-Off Cover Scheme

4.1 2017-18 Cash Flow

4.1.1. Table 2 sets out the cash flow statement of the Notional Account for 2017-18.

Table 2: Cash flow statement of the Notional Account 2017-18

Net cashflow during 2017-18 was $47,218, consisting of $43,177 ROC support payments, $4,041 notional interest and zero Commonwealth contributions.

4.2 Experience and Model

Comment on experience during 2017-18

4.2.1. In the last report, we expected payments of around $800 to be made by DHS during 2017-18 and around $30,000 to be accrued by the Notional Account for incidents that have occurred at 30 June 2018 which will give rise to ROC Commonwealth contributions. In reality, no payment was made by DHS during the year and MIGA has advised that, as at 30 June 2018, no claim has been identified as potentially eligible for the ROC Scheme.

Changes to model and assumptions

4.2.2. Last year, we reviewed all the assumptions in light of the National Claims and Policies Database (NCPD) data provided by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. This resulted in certain assumption changes described in the seventh report. We have retained these assumptions this year. They are described in Appendix 4.

4.3 Results: Projected Run-Off Cover Commonwealth Contributions

4.3.1. This section sets out projections of ROC Commonwealth contributions for the next 5 financial years. The projections should be regarded as indicative only, and they are based on the assumptions described above. Table 3 sets out the projections, which are illustrated in Figure 1. The Scheme is not expected to become mature in a cash flow sense for many years. The payments projected below are in nominal dollars and have not been discounted to current dollar values. Due to the small size of the scheme, these projections are subject to substantial uncertainty.

Table 3: Projected Run-Off Cover Commonwealth contributions

The Commonwealth contributions are projected to increase from $1,045 in 2019 to $15,615 in 2023.

Figure 1: Projected Run-Off Cover Commonwealth contributions

This chart shows the projected ROC Commonwealth contributions in nominal dollars for the next 5 financial years.  ROC Commonwealth contributions are projected to increase from $1,045 for the year ending 30 June 2019 to $15,615 for the year ending 30 June 2023.

4.4 Results: Liability at 30 June 2018 & Notional Account

4.4.1. The estimation of the Commonwealth’s liabilities under the ROC Scheme in future years is an inherently imprecise process. The operation of the ROC Scheme is likely to be characterised by a small number of claims of highly variable size. It is not possible to predict the costs of the ROC Scheme with a high level of confidence. For example, the presence of even a single large claim in any given year would be expected to have a substantial effect on the total amount of ROC Commonwealth contributions for that year.

4.4.2. The liabilities of the ROC Scheme could be measured in a number of ways. It is normal for insurance-type liabilities to be measured on either a ‘notified’ or an ‘occurrence’ basis. On a notified basis, new liabilities would accrue to the Scheme as new claims were notified. On an occurrence basis, new liabilities would accrue to the Scheme at the time of the occurrence of the incidents which were expected to give rise to professional indemnity claims which would attract a ROC Commonwealth contribution.

4.4.3. Under the occurrence model, liabilities are recognised more quickly than under the notified model. The occurrence model is more consistent with the notion that the Scheme is ongoing. Accordingly, the occurrence model will be adopted for this purpose. The liabilities of the ROC Scheme will therefore be taken as the present value of future ROC Commonwealth contributions which relate to relevant pregnancy or birth-related incidents which occurred before the effective date of valuation.

4.4.4. The Scheme must be managed over a long time frame. As discussed previously, ROC Commonwealth contributions are likely to be ‘lumpy’ in nature and immature in size for many years. ROC support payments will be received well in advance of ROC Commonwealth contributions. As a result of the payment timing mismatch and the expected volatility in the ROC Commonwealth contribution pattern, it is appropriate to have a system which enables proper tracking of the financial flows over time. Accordingly, a ROC notional account (the Notional Account) is maintained.

4.4.5. It is important to appreciate that the Notional Account is not an official Government account. Rather, it is a device established for the sole purpose of facilitating equity between midwives and other taxpayers.

4.4.6. The Notional Account is credited with:

  • ROC support payments; and
  • Notional interest.

4.4.7. Notional interest is credited to the Notional Account to ensure that midwives derive the proper benefit of the time value of money since ROC support payments are received by DHS well in advance of any ROC Commonwealth contributions being made by DHS. Notional Interest is applied at the short term bond rate for consistency with section 44(4a) of the Act, which requires interest of the short term bond rate to be applied to the total run-off cover credit balances of individual midwives.

4.4.8. The Notional Account is charged with ROC Commonwealth contributions. The Scheme ‘operates after’ the Level 1 and Level 2 Commonwealth contributions. The Level 1 Commonwealth contribution meets 80 per cent of the excess between $100,000 and $2 million, the Level 2 Commonwealth contribution meets the excess above $2 million. Table 4 sets out the funding sources for a ROC claim which costs $2.5 million.

Table 4: Funding sources for a $2.5 million claim which is eligible for the Run-Off Cover Scheme

Such a claim will receive $1.52 million from Level 1 Commonwealth contribution, $0.5 million from Level 2 Commonwealth contribution and $480,000 from Run-Off Cover Scheme.

4.4.9. The Act provides for payment of a midwife’s total run-off cover credit, should the Scheme ever be wound up without alternative arrangements being put in place. Thus, in this event, the accumulated ROC support payment balance would become a liability of the Scheme. At the same time, since the Scheme liabilities are being measured on an occurrence basis, some of the liabilities of the Scheme would be released, partially offsetting this impact. However, for the purpose of this report, the Scheme has been assumed to be ongoing and the whole amount of the accumulated ROC support payments has been taken to be available to meet relevant ROC Commonwealth contributions.

4.4.10. The liability estimates given in this report are central estimates. In broad terms, this means that they are intended to be equally likely to be too high or too low. In particular, it is not intended that the liability estimates contain any margin for risk. Funding considerations for the Scheme are not the same as for private sector insurance arrangements. The objective here is to manage the funding over the long term. Since substantial volatility in the liability estimates is likely from time to time, periods of surplus and periods of deficit in the Notional Account might be expected. However, given the long funding time horizon that is appropriate for the Scheme, a short term deficit in the Notional Account is not a cause for concern. As a result of this, there is no strong reason to maintain a risk margin in the liability estimates.

4.4.11. Table 5 sets out the balance sheet of the Notional Account as at 30 June 2018.

Table 5: Balance sheet of the Notional Account as at 30 June 2018

The Notional Account as at 30 June 2018 had assets of $202,642 and liabilities of $108,542. The liabilities are solely in incurred but not yet notified claims.

4.4.12. At 30 June 2018, the Notional Account has disclosed a surplus of approximately $94,000. Note again that no account has been taken for possible payments to midwives under division 4 of the Act, should the Scheme be wound up without alternative arrangement being put in place. Based on the data provided by DHS, this amount could be up to $203,000 as at 30 June 2018. Generally, the estimated surplus position should be regarded as highly uncertain.

4.5 Results: Projected Liabilities of the Scheme

4.5.1. Finally, it is appropriate to provide a benchmark projection of the liabilities of the Scheme. A simple model was developed within this office for the purpose of projecting future liabilities under this Scheme. Details are set out in Appendix 4.

4.5.2. Table 6 sets out estimates of the liabilities of the Notional Account at the end of each of the next five financial years. The purpose is to illustrate the short-term development of the Scheme. The numbers are small, and there is very substantial uncertainty in these estimates. In effect they are based on an assumption of significantly less than one ROC claim (recognised at the time of the medical incident which gives rise to the claim) per year for the next five years. It will be clear that the presence or absence of even a single ROC claim in any year would mean that the actual experience will turn out to be very different from the projected experience. It is worth noting that MIGA’s actuary does not expect any ROC claim notification or payment in the next five years according to the data provided in late 2018.

4.5.3. The numbers shown have been discounted to the end of the relevant financial year but have not been discounted to give values in today’s terms. The liability estimate as at 30 June 2018 is not directly comparable to the ‘expected’ estimate as presented in last year’s report because the long term discount rate has been reduced from 6 per cent per annum to 5 per cent per annum. All else being equal, a small amount of liability has been released due to absence of any notification during 2017-18.

Table 6: Projected balance sheet liabilities of the Notional Account

We estimate the scheme liability to be $108,542 as at 30 June 2018. This is expected to steadily increase to $336,684 by 30 June 2023. We estimate new accrual to be $32,824 in 2019 which increases steadily to $51,932 in 2023.

4.6 Actuarial management

4.6.1. Regular review of the costs and notional assets of the Scheme will allow the ROC support payment rate to be adjusted from time to time, if necessary. Consideration of that rate is beyond the scope of this report. This report has described a framework for the valuation of Scheme liabilities and established the Notional Account. It is intended that the valuation and accounting framework be applied at each future annual review of the Scheme.

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Guy Thorburn FIAA
Australian Government Actuary
1 May 2019

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